Solar Power Forecasting

The share of the global energy production coming from solar power is increasing, and forecasting solar power production is the key for a successful integration of solar power into the existing electricity grid. SOLARFOR (Solar Power Forecasting) is a flexible tool for online prediction of the solar power production coming from e.g. PV (photo-voltaic) based power systems. The tool can be used both to deliver forecasts for single solar power plant, and to deliver forecast for a large geographical region with a huge number of both small and larger solar power installations.

SOLARFOR use meteorological forecasts as input and hence the maximal prediction horizon is determined by the meteorological forecasts.

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History​

Solar power forecasting is a relatively new discipline and SOLARFOR is based on research mainly carried out on DTU from 2005 and onwards. The models have been further developed in order to precisely describe the path of the sun over the sky, support sun tracker technologies, support global meteorological models with relatively low temporal resolution, and include optimal combination of several meteorological models, statistical downscaling, shadow detection, and more.​

Input to SOLARFOR

SOLARFOR requires the following input:

  • Measurements of actual production, preferably received online
  • Meteorological forecasts from one provider

Preferably measurements of availability and curtailment should also be supplied as input to SOLARFOR. Furthermore, SOLARFOR is able to handle scheduled availability and curtailment. In order to increase prediction performance one or more additional providers of meteorological forecasts can be used.

The data-driven approach used by SOLARFOR limits the static data requirements. The precise requirements depends on plant type, e.g. for a PV plant with fixed panels the static data requirements includes the plant capacity and the approximate orientation and tilt of the panels. For regional forecasting similar information is inferred from historic production measurements.

Methods underlying SOLARFOR​

Like other ENFOR forecast products SOLARFOR is build on artificial intelligence and data-driven methods. Benefits of this approach include:

  • Automatic and continuous calibration of models, ensuring high and robust prediction performance in real operation.
  • Adaption to changes in the underlying system, including adaption to external conditions.
  • Reduced need for static data, which can be uncertain or difficult to obtain.

In order to be able to utilize meteorological forecasts with a coarse time resolution SOLARFOR includes advanced interpolation methods taking the path of the over the sky into account. Furthermore, accurate time zone handling is crucial. This is handled by the well proven engine underlying all ENFOR forecast products.

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SOLARFOR as a service​

If desired, SOLARFOR can be installed as a service on servers managed by us. For smaller installations this is the recommended approach.

SOLARFOR configuration examples​

SOLARFOR can be configured in the same way as WPPT for which configuration examples can be seen.

Like WPPT, SOLARFOR can be used for predicting the solar power production in larger regions. In this case it is not necessary to have online measurements from all solar power production plants. Depending on the climatic and geographic characteristics, only online measurements from representative plants are needed. However, the up-scaling procedure will benefit from having access to aggregated energy readings of all solar power production​

​Contact information

​ENFOR A/S

Lyngsø Allé 3

DK-2970 Hørsholm

​​Phone: (+45) 45 350 350

E-mail: info@enfor.dk

VAT no.: 29421633

ENFOR A/S
Lyngsø Allé 3, 2970 Hørsholm
Tlf.: 45 350 350
info@enfor.dk