PRICEFOR (Electricity Price Forecasting) is a highly advanced system for predicting electricity prices in deregulated markets, focussing on the Nordic spot market. As electricity prices can be very volatile PRICEFOR focus on supplying information geared towards use in advanced decision making algorithms. PRICEFOR focus on day ahead forecasts.
PRICEFOR is based on research performed on DTU and ENFOR since 2005. Part of this research has been performed in cooperation with researchers from other European institutions via European Union research projects.
Input to PRICEFOR
The input to PRICEFOR consists of:
- Observed historic prices, received with a small time delay.
- Predictions of the wind power production, via WPPT.
- Predictions of the electricity load, via LOADFOR.
- Other predictive data, as e.g. capacity of interconnections.
Output from PRICEFOR
The output from PRICEFOR depends on user requirements, but will typically consist of:
- Predicted spot prices.
- Predicted imbalance unit penalties (up/down).
Focus is on the day ahead level.
Formally, the forecasts are expected values conditional to the input available at forecast time. This has the consequence that, opposed to actual imbalance penalties, expected up- and down-regulation unit penalties can both be positive for a given point in time. These expected values are required for identifying the bid maximizing the expected revenue. See the following paper and presentation from WIW-2011, Aarhus, Denmark for further details.