Power Price Prediction

PRICEFOR (Electricity Price Forecasting) is a highly advanced system for predicting electricity prices in deregulated markets, focussing on the Nordic spot market. As electricity prices can be very volatile PRICEFOR focus on supplying information geared towards use in advanced decision making algorithms. PRICEFOR focus on day ahead forecasts.​

History​

PRICEFOR is based on research performed on DTU​ and ENFOR since 2005. Part of this research has been performed in cooperation with researchers from other European institutions via European Union research projects.​

Input to PRICEFOR​

The input to PRICEFOR consists of:

  • Observed historic prices, received with a small time delay.
  • Predictions of the wind power production, via WPPT.
  • Predictions of the electricity load, via LOADFOR.
  • Other predictive data, as e.g. capacity of interconnections.​​

Output from PRICEFOR​

The output from PRICEFOR depends on user requirements, but will typically consist of:

  • Predicted spot prices.
  • Predicted imbalance unit penalties (up/down).

Focus is on the day ahead level.

Formally, the forecasts are expected values conditional to the input available at forecast time. This has the consequence that, opposed to actual imbalance penalties, expected up- and down-regulation unit penalties can both be positive for a given point in time. These expected values are required for identifying the bid maximizing the expected revenue. See the following paper​ and presentation​ from WIW-2011, Aarhus, Denmark for further details.​

Methods underlying PRICEFOR​

It has been demonstrated in several papers that for markets with a large penetration of wind power the electricity price on day ahead level depends heavily on the level of the produced wind power for each time point. On a longer horizon the price depends on the amount of water in hydro power reservoirs, overall consumption level, fuel prices, system capacities and plant outages, etc.


Research carried out at DTU has shown that the predictability of the spot price can be significantly improved by using the wind power forecasts as provided by WPPT as input for PRICEFOR. Hence PRICEFOR is designed for integration with WPPT.


PRICEFOR is based on adaptive statistical models, and hence the system automatically calibrates to the actual situation in the market. Therefore the system automatically takes into account changes in plant outages, fuel prices, content of hydro reservoirs, etc.​

PRICEFOR as a service​

If desired, PRICEFOR can be installed as a service on servers managed by us.​

​Contact information

​ENFOR A/S

Lyngsø Allé 3

DK-2970 Hørsholm

​​Phone: (+45) 45 350 350

E-mail: info@enfor.dk

VAT no.: 29421633

ENFOR A/S
Lyngsø Allé 3, 2970 Hørsholm
Tlf.: 45 350 350
info@enfor.dk