Power Price Prediction (PRICEFOR)
PRICEFOR (Energy Price Forecasting) is a highly advanced and flexible system for predicting energy prices in deregulated markets.
As for the other ENFOR products PRICEFOR delivers both highly competitive and accurate predictions, and unlike most other systems PRICEFOR also delivers reliable estimates of the uncertainty of the predictions. Reliable estimates of the uncertainty are crucial for maximizing the expected economical outcome while keeping the risk involved in the trading as low as possible.
PRICEFOR is focusing on the spot market, and the horizon is up to 48 hours, but it can be changed to accomplish other needs.
In most cases the economical consequences of a wrong forecast is non-symmetrical, and hence PRICEFOR can predict prices for both down- and up-regulation.
Characteristics
It has been demonstrated in several papers that for markets with a large penetration of wind power the electricity price on a short horizon (like up to 48 hours) depends heavily on the level of the produced wind power for each time point. On a longer horizon the price depends on the amount of water for hydro plants, time of the year, fuel prices, system capacities and plant outages, etc.
Research carried out at ENFOR and the Technical University of Denmark has shown that the predictability of the spot price can be significantly improved by using the wind power forecasts as provided by WPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool) as input for PRICEFOR. Hence PRICEFOR is designed for an integration with WPPT, but other wind power prediction systems might be used instead.
PRICEFOR is build on adaptive statistical models, and hence the system automatically calibrates to the actual situation in the market. Hence the system automatically takes into account changes in plant outages, fuel prices, capacity for hydro power, etc.
Input to PRICEFOR
Depending on the configuration of PRICEFOR the following is taking into account:
- Historical prices.
- Predictions of wind power.
- MET predictions.
- Calendar information.
- Political or economical events.
- Geographical and/or demographically information.
- Capacity for connectivity lines (Both DC and AC lines).
Output from PRICEFOR
PRICEFOR is tailored to the need of the end-users. However, most often PRICEFOR delivers
- Short term online predictions (say 0-48 hour ahead) of the spot price – both down regulation and up regulation prices.
- Reliable confidence intervals for the future spot price.
- Estimated effects of political or economical events
For more information you can either consult the pages with Technical References or call/mail us.
E-mail: info ¤ enfor . dk | Phone: (+45) 45 350 350